A former special forces colonel, minister of state Al Carns was this week on manouevres cautioning that the UK must ready itself for war with Russia.
“The threat of conflict is knocking on Europe’s door once more. That’s the reality. We’ve got to be prepared to deter it,” he said, in remarks that exceed previous warnings by his boss, the defence secretary.
“Collectively, everybody – what is their role if we get caught in an existential crisis, and what do they need to be aware they need to do and what they can’t do, and how do we rally the nation to support a armed campaign?”
It was stark language from the 45-year-old Scottish-born MP, who has had an exceptionally swift rise to his role of minister for the military.
And inevitably for a politician with a history of service in the armed forces, there is conjecture about whether he is a potential future leader – as with, at various points, other military figures before him.
This time, however, some ruling party MPs think there could be a real prospect of Carns being a contender if and when the opportunity presents itself.
One of the reasons for that is that Carns has been engaged with politics for longer than it seems, as a former defence advisor to multiple previous defence secretaries.
But there is also the danger of being over-promoted as a politician with a personal history colleagues think will resonate with the public – without enough thought of whether they have the track record and shrewdness to make it to the top.
Carns was born in Aberdeen, and state educated, before joining the Royal Marines in 1999 at the age of 19. He advanced his career and was awarded the Military Cross in 2011 “for gallant and distinguished services in Afghanistan”.
It came as a surprise when he left the armed forces after 24 years of service to run as an MP in Birmingham Selly Oak, shortly before he was due to be promoted to brigadier.
And in a sign he was immediately identified as a talent, the prime minister appointed him as a minister for veterans affairs straight after the 2024 election. He was elevated later that year to the more prominent position with a portfolio covering all the military.
With a commanding presence, Carns has been an periodic spokesperson for the government, and has been an effective political attack dog when putting pressure on rival parties over issues of national security.
He has also found time to set a new global benchmark this year along with former military colleagues by ascending the world's highest peak in under five days without acclimating on the mountain, using xenon gas.
His name entered the conversation as a possible future leader seriously around the time of a deputy contest last autumn, when his supporters began canvassing colleagues about a run for the job. That did not gain traction, with the prime minister's office firmly backing another candidate.
Since then, profiles of Carns have begun to appear in the media, with one newspaper presenting him as the “Action Man” that some were trying to stop from challenging the prime minister.
While some MPs think he could be prime ministerial timber, others think he is making himself appear too ambitious when there is no opening at the top. There is also a wariness about the meteoric ascent of a high flyer from outside politics.
“It's not proven that being senior in the military equates to being any good at politics any more than being a top prosecutor,” notes one MP. “He is an unknown quantity.”
Elara is a financial strategist with over a decade of experience in wealth management and entrepreneurship.
