With nine goals in his opening seven fixtures, Manchester City striker Erling Haaland has started the season with incredible momentum.
Although this isn't his strongest opening to a term - he scored 11 goals in his opening seven appearances in the 2022-23 season and double digits last year - it nonetheless positions him three strikes clear in the early running for this season's Premier League Golden Boot.
The fact that none of his nine goals have been penalties renders it particularly impressive.
Naturally, injury could definitively intervene in the eventual Golden Boot winner, but there are two reasons why Haaland is such a strong favourite for the award so quickly into the term.
First, the total of conversions he has already scored - and, of similar importance, the number and quality of opportunities he's receiving.
Furthermore, the modest opening his usual rivals for the honor have made.
A player's expected goals number (xG) signifies how many goals a English league attacker has traditionally converted from the quantity and caliber of scoring situations he's encountered.
It is not a number randomly picked by data analysts, but by English top-flight records.
And if we look at players' xG in the Premier League so far this term from normal play, the Norway forward is receiving significantly more excellent scoring situations to convert than any other player.
In fact, even if Haaland wasn't superior at converting opportunities than anyone else in the league, he would still have scored significantly more goals as all other players.
This is illustrated by analyzing the total and standard of opportunities that players have had in the top flight so far.
Haaland has attempted 29 efforts so far this term, a dozen more than every other footballer.
Interestingly, this is not particularly unusual for him - he had previously registered more non-penalty shots at this juncture in the last two seasons (30 in the 2023-24 season and 34 in 2024-25).
What is, however remarkable even by his standards is the standard of scoring situations he has had this campaign. His attempts have had an chance quality metric of 0.27 per attempt.
This number represents is that attackers have typically netted the efforts he's registered at a rate of 27%.
Regarding attackers registering at ten or more efforts, only Blues playmaker Enzo Fernandez has had more straightforward opportunities to convert per attempt - because of a couple of tap-ins against West Ham United and Brighton.
The Norwegian's expected goals of an average of 0.27 is much higher than the 0.17 xG per attempt he had at the start of last season.
To summarize, the opportunities he has had in this campaign have been notably easier to find the net from in a reorganised City team than those at the start of the previous campaign.
Starting a season so powerfully is, as mentioned above, not unusual for Haaland. After seven games last term he had netted ten times - four more than every other footballer and half-dozen more than Mohamed Salah.
However, it was the Reds attacker who secured the scoring title with 29 conversions, seven more than the Manchester City striker.
During the current term, while Haaland has opened with incredible momentum, Salah has netted fifty percent fewer goals and had half the chances (xG) than at this juncture last term.
Indeed this has been the most subdued opening to a Premier League term the Pharaohs star has made.
It is not just Salah who has started slowly either. If we look at the highest eleven attackers in the Premier League last term, Haaland has registered an equal amount goals as the other 10 players combined so far.
Whether due to fitness issues - Yoane Wissa, Cole Palmer and Jorgen Strand Larsen - extended transfer dramas in one particular striker's situation or simply because their teams have struggled (several proven attackers), Haaland's probable competitors in the race for the Golden Boot have underperformed so far.
Although the Norwegian appears the obvious frontrunner for the Premier League Golden Boot, what about the Continental scoring award that is presented to the footballer scoring the most in Europe's top-five leagues?
That contest is significantly tighter at this early stage because two world-class strikers have similarly opened in superb fashion, with 11 and nine goals correspondingly.
The circumstance Haaland has netted on numerous occasions and has the highest xG of the three players without having taken any spot-kicks renders him the likely winner.
But since the English and French stars are two of the best goal-scorers in continental soccer in terms of overperforming their xG, the battle continues intensely.
Elara is a financial strategist with over a decade of experience in wealth management and entrepreneurship.
