The Reasons Saudi Investment Has Not Turned Newcastle into Title Contenders

Eddie Howe is not prone to histrionics or sweeping media pronouncements. So by his standards, his media briefing following Sunday’s loss to West Ham counts as a furious tirade. Newcastle took an early lead but the opposition took the lead by half-time, while also hitting the post and seeing a spot-kick revoked by VAR, leading Howe to execute a three substitutions at the half-time.

“The opening period was particularly irritating,” the coach stated. “Virtually any player could have been substituted and I believe this indicated of our performance level at that stage in the game and it’s very, very rare for me to feel that way. Actually, I cannot recall having done so during my tenure as head coach of the club, so I felt the squad required some shaking up at half-time. That’s why I did what I did.”

Three key players were substituted at the interval and Newcastle did stabilise to an extent in the latter period, without ever really looking like they might fight back into the game against an opponent that had won only one of their previous nine league matches. Considering the congestion the middle of the table is, with just three points dividing third from 11th, and a nine-point margin between the upper and lower ranks, a run of 12 points from ten matches has not left Newcastle stranded but, similarly, they cannot end the campaign in 13th.

The Issue of Expectations

The problem partially is one of public view. With the Saudi PIF, Newcastle have the richest backers in the world. The expectation when the PIF acquired 80% of the team in recent years was that it would have a game-changing impact, similar to the former Chelsea owner achieved at Stamford Bridge or Sheikh Mansour had at Manchester City. The distinction is that those two investors took over before the introduction of financial fair play rules (and the ongoing charges against City relate to if they violated those regulations after they were in place).

Profit and sustainability restrictions restrict the ability of owners, no matter how wealthy, to invest funds on their teams and therefore probably would have hindered any Middle Eastern attempt to raise Newcastle to the level of City. But it wasn't necessary for the club's spending to have been so restrained as it has; they might have invested further and stayed inside the limit – or just accepted a relatively meagre European penalty since their major issue is more with the continental than the Premier League rules.

Infrastructure Spending and Financial Rules

Besides which, stadium development is excluded from Profit and Sustainability calculations; the easiest method to raise income to create more financial flexibility would be to expand or renovate the arena. Considering the site of St James’ Park, with listed buildings on multiple sides, in reality that likely means building an completely new stadium. Rumors circulated in spring of potentially making the nearby relocation to Leazes Park – resistance from community organizations might have been surmounted with a commitment to build a replacement green space on the current stadium site – but there has been any progress on that proposal. There has occurred significant retrenchment from the Saudi fund on a range of initiatives as it refocuses on local investments; the attitude to Newcastle seems completely in alignment with that strategic shift.

Player Sales Saga

The star striker episode was born of that conflict. A more confident management could have framed his sale as necessary to free up funds for further investment; instead there was a vain attempt to keep him. That meant the team started the campaign amid a sense of frustration even with the acquisitions of several new players. The opening was mixed: one win in their first six games.

But it seemed a corner had been turned. They had won five in six before Sunday, a run that featured demolitions of Union Saint-Gilloise and Benfica in the Champions League. This explains the performance against West Ham was so surprising. The issue perhaps is that Newcastle’s approach is very aggressive, very high-octane; a minor decrease in energy can have profound effects. Maybe the strain of Premier League, European and Carabao Cup competition, five games in 15 days, had got to them. The German forward started all five matches and looked particularly fatigued.

The Nature of Contemporary Soccer

That’s the reality of today's football. Coaches have to be ready to make changes. The manager has been unlucky that Wissa’s fitness issue has left him short of forward choices but, no matter how reasonable the reasons, Sunday’s performance was unacceptable –particularly after scoring first at a stadium ready to criticize its home team.

The Newcastle boss will hope it was just a blip, one of those days when everybody is below par at once, but if Newcastle are to qualify for the European competition next season, not to mention eventually mount an actual championship bid, they cannot be as unreliable as this.