Starmer's Supporters Launch 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a coordinated effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to the House of Commons. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.

Major Barriers in the Candidate Selection Procedure

Several members on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to head off any potential leadership challenge.

The party apparatus is said to have sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially stand for the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his current role and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of sources also shared concerns about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the body could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

However, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to mount a significant campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.

The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.