How Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in Gaza But Faces Challenges With Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict

Accounts of an impending American-Russian leadership meeting have been overstated, it seems.

Only a few days after President Trump said he planned to confer with Russia's leader Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been put off without a new date.

A initial meeting by the two nations' leading diplomats has been cancelled, too.

"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," President Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I'll see what happens."

• Trump states he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after plan for negotiations with Putin postponed
• Letdown in Kyiv as Zelensky leaves Washington empty-handed

The frequently changing summit is another twist in the president's efforts to mediate an end to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.

While making remarks in the North African country recently to celebrate that truce deal, the president addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.

"It is essential to get the Russian situation resolved," he said.

Nonetheless, the circumstances that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for almost four years.

Less Leverage

According to the lead negotiator, the crucial element to achieving a deal was Israel's move to attack representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a action that angered America's Arab allies but provided Trump leverage to pressure Israel's leader Netanyahu into making a deal.

Trump gained from a long record of siding with Israel dating back to his initial presidency, encompassing his choice to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem, to change US policy on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against Iran.

The American leader, in fact, is better regarded among Israelis than Netanyahu – a situation that gave him unique influence over the Israeli leader.

Combine Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to secure an deal.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, the president has significantly reduced influence. Over the past nine months, he has swung between attempts to strong-arm the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.

The US leader has warned to impose new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that doing so could harm the world's financial stability and further escalate the conflict.

Meanwhile, the US leader has criticized openly Zelensky, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with the country and pausing weapon deliveries to the country - only to then retreat in the wake of worried European partners who caution a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.

The president loves to tout his ability to meet and negotiate agreements, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to advance the war any nearer a resolution.

The Russian president may in fact be using Trump's desire for a settlement – and belief in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.

During the summer, Russia's leader agreed to a high-level meeting in Alaska at the time when it appeared likely that the president would sign off on legislative penalties backed by Senate Republicans. That bill was subsequently put on hold.

Recently, as news emerged that the White House was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the president of Russia phoned the US president who then touted the potential meeting in Budapest.

The following day, Trump hosted Zelensky at the White House, but left without agreements after a reportedly strained discussion.

The US leader maintained that he was not being played by the Russian president.

"You know, I have been manipulated all my life by skilled operators, and I emerged successfully," he said.

However the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the sequence of events.

"As soon as the issue of long-range mobility became a little further away for us – for our nation – the Russian side quickly became less engaged in negotiations," he said.

So, in a short period, the president has bounced from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to organizing a Budapest summit with Putin and confidentially urging Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – including land Russia has been unable to conquer.

He has finally decided on calling for a truce along present frontlines – a proposal Russia has refused to accept.

On the campaign trail previously, Trump promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since abandoned that pledge, admitting that ending the war is turning out harder than he anticipated.

It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the challenge of finding a peace plan when both parties desires, or can afford to, give up the fight.