Elections Underway in the Netherlands as Surveys Suggest Potential Second Win for Geert Wilders

Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, though experts believe PVV is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a multi-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid disagreements concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a campaign focused on issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote earns a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant division means that no single party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of power. However, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is uncertain and government negotiations could take several months, political observers suggest that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is anticipated soon after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.